On April 26th, forecasters predict that US President Donald Trump’s trade war will have an impact on economic growth this year and next year, as tariffs will push up prices and suppress consumer spending. According to the latest survey of economists, the US economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, compared to last month’s forecasts of 2% and 1.9%, respectively. At present, the median forecast of interviewed economists shows that the probability of an economic recession in the next 12 months is 45%, higher than the 30% in March.
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