On May 10th, Goldman Sachs stated that the US stock market is facing a nearly 20% risk of decline, and a recession is a huge risk for the stock market. In Thursday’s podcast, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer appeared particularly cautious. Hatzius reiterated the expectation that there is a 45% chance of a US economic recession in the next 12 months, acknowledging that recent data has been mixed, with both soft data such as sentiment surveys and better hard data such as the latest non farm payroll data. Goldman Sachs Chief Political Economist Alec Phillips warns that the US President’s comments on the trade agreement with the UK indicate that many countries will ultimately face higher tariffs than before Trump’s re-election.
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