Category: Flash News

On April 12th, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), speculators’ net long position in WTI crude oil decreased by 25159 contracts to 69463 contracts, hitting a six week low during the week of April 8th. The net long position of COMEX gold held by speculators decreased by 38088 contracts to 138465 contracts, hitting a 13 month low.

On April 12th, data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on April 11th local time showed that for the first time since 2019, the number of reported measles cases in a single week in the United States exceeded 90. Since the week of March 23rd, the United States has reported 91 cases of measles accompanied by rash. As of now, the United States has confirmed at least 712 cases of measles this year, the second highest number of reported cases in a single year since the 1990s. In 2019, there were 1274 confirmed cases of measles in the United States.

On April 12th, the US Customs and Border Protection issued an alert on April 11th local time, informing users that its system for exempting freight tariffs had malfunctioned. The affected shipments include all trade goods from countries currently under the 90 day tariff suspension implemented by the Trump administration. The customs suggest that the declarant submit a separate release order for the goods and make a consolidated declaration after the issue is resolved. Normally, American importers submit both the release of goods and financial documents when paying for freight, in order to make the payment for the goods. In order to ensure the smooth transportation of goods, the US Customs recommends that importers submit a release order for the goods now and submit financial statements after the issue is resolved. For now, this means that the US government has not yet imposed tariffs.

On April 12, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said that he expected a “chaos” in the US bond market, which prompted the Federal Reserve to intervene. Damon said during Friday’s earnings call that “due to various rules and regulations, there will be some chaos in the US bond market.” He added that the Federal Reserve will take action at that time, but it will have to wait until “they start to panic a bit. As Trump’s tariff policy drama triggers broader market turbulence, yields, especially long-term bond yields, have surged this week. This trend raises doubts about whether the asset has lost its safe haven appeal and has raised concerns about large liquidation of basis trades.

On April 12th, Goldman Sachs economists led by Sven Jari Stehn raised their expectations for interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, citing weaker growth and lower inflation prospects. In their client report released on Friday, they wrote: “Although President Trump’s suspension of reciprocal tariffs on specific countries has brought some relief, the outlook for the European economy has further deteriorated since we updated our forecast last Friday.” Goldman Sachs expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in April, June, July, and September, and if trade tensions continue to escalate, the number of rate cuts may further increase; Goldman Sachs originally expected the European Central Bank to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meetings in April, June, and July. Goldman Sachs expects the Bank of England to further cut interest rates to 2.75% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the previous forecast of a rate cut to 3% in the third quarter of 2026.

On April 12th, Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez held a press conference during his visit to China and answered questions from reporters about the latest US tariff policies. Sanchez said, ‘I would like to remind everyone that the US government’s 90 day tariff suspension measure has not lifted the 25% tariff on European steel and aluminum, nor has it lifted the 25% tariff on cars produced in Europe.’. Therefore, I believe we must also be aware that there will be intense negotiations during these 90 days.

On April 12th, the Ukrainian delegation arrived in Washington D.C. on the 11th local time to continue negotiations on the US Ukraine mineral agreement. Ukrainian officials have stated that the talks are expected to begin on the same day and last for two days. The main content will be technical issues and there will be no senior officials involved. The White House has not yet provided details regarding the talks.

On April 12th, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov stated on the 11th local time that it is theoretically possible for Russian President Putin to have a phone call with US President Trump after his meeting with US Middle East envoy Steven Wittkov. On the 11th, Putin met with visiting Vitkov in St. Petersburg. It is reported that the issue of mediating the situation in Ukraine will become the core topic of this meeting.

On April 12th, Mexican President Simbaum responded to the water resource dispute between Mexico and the United States on the 11th local time, stating that there are still some issues that the United States has not resolved regarding the water treaty, including agreements to expand water treatment plants. But Simbaum promised to immediately provide water to farmers in Texas, USA.

On April 12th, Alberto Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, stated that there is a risk of rising inflation and a weakening labor market in the short term, which requires policymakers to remain vigilant when monitoring future data releases. Musalem reiterated his concerns about the potential sustainability of some of the inflationary effects caused by tariffs, and emphasized that maintaining stable long-term inflation expectations is crucial for officials. At present, there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the net impact and timing of new trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies on prices, employment, and economic activity, and the possibility of rising inflation accompanied by a weakening labor market is a clear possibility that must be carefully considered, “Musalem said at an event in Spring, Arkansas on Friday.