The institution expects that the price of gasoline and diesel per liter will be reduced by 0.18-0.19 yuan in this round, and some regions in China may return to the era of “7 yuan” for 92 octane gasoline.
Domestic finished oil prices are expected to experience a “double decline” during the price adjustment window on May 15th, at which time oil prices may realize the largest decline of the year.
According to Jin Lianchuang’s calculation, as of the eighth working day on May 13th, the average price of crude oil varieties used as a reference for domestic oil price adjustments was 81.73 US dollars per barrel, with a change rate of -4.88%. The corresponding retail prices of domestic gasoline and diesel should be reduced by 235 yuan per ton. Based on this range, the price of gasoline and diesel per liter is expected to decrease by 0.18-0.19 yuan, and many regions in China may return to the era of “7 yuan” for 92 octane gasoline.
This means that the cost of fuel for car owners to travel will decrease. Taking a typical private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters as an example, filling up one tank of fuel will cost at least 9 yuan less; In terms of diesel, a large truck with a fuel tank capacity of 140 liters can save about 27.5 yuan by filling up one tank of fuel.
Since the beginning of this year, the domestic oil price adjustment has gone through a total of “five rises, two falls, and two stalls”, but the overall increase is more than decrease. The latest price adjustment corresponds to a decrease of only 0.05-0.06 yuan per liter for 92 octane gasoline, 95 octane gasoline, and 0 octane diesel.
During this pricing cycle, international oil prices have fluctuated and fallen. Based on the analysis of multiple institutions, the increase in US crude oil inventories, the weakened impact of geopolitical conflicts, the peak maintenance of global refineries, and the weak demand for gasoline and diesel at the global terminal are all important factors leading to a significant decline in international oil prices.
Jin Lianchuang pointed out that the response of the crude oil market to the situation in the Middle East is becoming increasingly weak, and attention is returning to the world economic outlook. At present, the economic data of major countries such as the United States shows signs of slowing down, and fuel demand is sluggish. Therefore, it is expected that international oil prices will remain bearish on the news side, and future oil prices will mainly fluctuate at low levels.
The First Financial News reporter noticed that since hitting the highest point since the beginning of the year on April 12 this year, international oil prices have since fluctuated and fallen. Until 18:50 on May 13, the US WTI and UK Brent crude oil futures prices have cumulatively decreased by 10.3% and 9.83%, respectively, to $78.63/barrel and $83.12/barrel.